Heartbreaker
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.10
43 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $27.37 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.04%
2,950 openings, odds method
Variance
17.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,950 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$30.8844.12 coins$8911,273 coins28.85x
Latest dropsnewest first
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classifiedAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$30.1043 coins$234335 coins7.79x
Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart (Blood Red)graffiti · baseKickerrrrrrrr$30.1043 coins$1.361.94 coins0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.10 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $30.32 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $30.88 | 90.91% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 4.0%classified 3.5%restricted 0.5%legendary 0.5%Ancient 0.5%rare 0.5%mil spec 0.5%base 90.0%best hit $1,149 (37.22x)