Hearty

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.79

32.56 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $20.72 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.05%

754 openings, odds method

Variance

7.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78 openings · below min

7 days

93.67%±22.84584 openings

30 days

89.05%±20.11754 openings

since tracking started

89.05%±20.11754 openings

15.0%78.0%141.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	78	78.02%±62.5	—	odds
7d	584	93.67%±22.8	+0.2σ	odds
30d	754	89.05%±20.1	−0.2σ	odds
All	754	89.05%±20.1	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100,000	$5,600 8,000 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 11,111	$3,622 5,175 coins	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$1,639 2,341 coins	4.0%	1	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$751 1,073 coins	3.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2	1 in 2,000	$673 961 coins	1.6%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 667	$389 556 coins	2.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$295 421 coins	1.4%	0	0.8	—
Sticker \| ropz (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable	1 in 500	$255 365 coins	2.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$121 173 coins	2.9%	1	3.8	0.26×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$114 163 coins	3.3%	4	4.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$70.70 101 coins	3.4%	9	7.6	1.19×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$69.05 98.65 coins	0.8%	4	1.9	2.11×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$49.01 70.01 coins	9.5%	38	30.3	1.25×
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$45.21 64.58 coins	4.4%	15	15.2	0.99×
Sticker \| loWel (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable	1 in 11	$23.44 33.48 coins	10.2%	70	68.2	1.03×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 14	$16.25 23.21 coins	5.5%	57	53.1	1.07×
Sticker \| nex (Foil) \| Cologne 2015sticker · exotic	15.0%	$15.58 22.26 coins	11.3%	94	113.7	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$13.92 19.88 coins	6.7%	74	75.8	0.98×
Sticker \| WorldEdit (Foil) \| Katowice 2019sticker · remarkable	20.0%	$12.19 17.42 coins	11.8%	144	151.6	0.95×
Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Berlin 2019sticker · exotic	30.0%	$8.90 12.72 coins	12.9%	246	227.4	1.08×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$22.7932.56 coins$1,6392,341 coins71.90x1d

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · legendary · Phase 2$22.7932.56 coins$673961 coins29.51x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | mousesports (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · exotic$22.7932.56 coins$8.9012.72 coins0.39x8h

Sticker | mousesports (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · exoticchinaman$22.7932.56 coins$8.9012.72 coins0.39x8h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$22.7932.56 coins$13.9219.88 coins0.61x8h

Sticker | loWel (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable$22.7932.56 coins$23.4433.48 coins1.03x8h

AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare$22.7932.56 coins$16.2523.21 coins0.71x8h

Sticker | loWel (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · remarkable$22.7932.56 coins$23.4433.48 coins1.03x11h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$22.7932.56 coins$13.9219.88 coins0.61x11h

Sticker | mousesports (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · exotic$22.7932.56 coins$8.9012.72 coins0.39x11h

Sticker | mousesports (Foil) | Berlin 2019sticker · exoticAxiomatic csgoroll.com$22.7932.56 coins$8.9012.72 coins0.39x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$22.79	90.92%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$22.81	90.92%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.78	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 1.5%legendary 0.1%remarkable 29.2%classified 17.0%restricted 0.3%rare 7.0%exotic 45.0%best hit $1,639 (71.90x)