Heat
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.19
37.42 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $23.81 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.30%
964 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 972 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedCousin of po$26.1937.42 coins$1.582.26 coins0.06x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$26.1937.42 coins$1.341.91 coins0.05x
★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$26.1937.42 coins$52.3574.79 coins2.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.19 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.59 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $27.28 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $27.27 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.27 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.27 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 2.1%restricted 48.6%covert 8.3%classified 9.0%mil spec 32.0%best hit —