Heaven and Hell
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$260.50
372 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $236.81 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.72%
140 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 36 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 14.7% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 5.0% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.14× |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 15.4% | $576 823 coins | 37.5% | 26 | 21.6 | 1.21× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.4% | $235 336 coins | 15.3% | 24 | 21.6 | 1.11× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $210 300 coins | 8.9% | 13 | 14.0 | 0.93× |
| ★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 15.4% | $172 246 coins | 11.2% | 19 | 21.6 | 0.88× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $107 153 coins | 4.5% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× |
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $65.32 93.31 coins | 2.8% | 11 | 14.0 | 0.79× |
| Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $3.17 4.53 coins | 0.1% | 20 | 14.0 | 1.43× |
| MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $1.03 1.47 coins | 0.0% | 10 | 14.0 | 0.71× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertI lost my MBA tuition fee$266380 coins$590843 coins2.22x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $260 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $261 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $266 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 2.8%covert 77.2%industrial 10.0%restricted 10.0%best hit $1,269 (4.77x)