Hercules

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$53.52

76.46 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $48.66 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

104.69%

104 openings, odds method

Variance

15.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

80 openings · below min

30 days

104.69%±76.41104 openings

since tracking started

104.69%±76.41104 openings

-0.5%145.0%290.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	82.58%±207.5	—	odds
7d	80	67.76%±87.1	—	odds
30d	104	104.69%±76.4	+0.4σ	odds
All	104	104.69%±76.4	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 5,000	$8,887 12,695 coins	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$5,471 7,815 coins	1.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$4,946 7,065 coins	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,500	$4,578 6,540 coins	3.8%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$2,069 2,955 coins	4.3%	1	0.1	—
Negev \| Mjölnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$1,397 1,996 coins	4.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$983 1,404 coins	3.0%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$930 1,329 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$636 908 coins	2.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 333	$454 648 coins	2.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$220 314 coins	1.8%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 286	$216 309 coins	1.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$104 148 coins	6.4%	2	3.1	0.64×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$103 147 coins	3.7%	2	1.8	1.10×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$98.70 141 coins	8.1%	4	4.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$79.10 113 coins	13.0%	10	8.3	1.20×
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 222	$78.40 112 coins	0.7%	1	0.5	—
Souvenir P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classified	15.0%	$43.89 62.7 coins	13.5%	21	15.6	1.35×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$40.19 57.42 coins	5.0%	6	6.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$21.90 31.28 coins	4.5%	8	10.4	0.77×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	25.0%	$15.11 21.59 coins	7.8%	22	26.0	0.85×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$8.59 12.27 coins	4.4%	26	26.0	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHIM$53.6276.6 coins$2,0582,940 coins38.38x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$53.5276.46 coins$8.5912.27 coins0.16x19h

P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedsteffyow;D$53.5276.46 coins$8.5912.27 coins0.16x19h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$53.5276.46 coins$104148 coins1.94x19h

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$53.5276.46 coins$15.1121.59 coins0.28x19h

Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classified$53.5276.46 coins$43.8962.7 coins0.82x19h

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$53.5276.46 coins$40.1957.42 coins0.75x19h

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$53.5276.46 coins$15.1121.59 coins0.28x19h

Souvenir P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · classifiedgifu$53.5276.46 coins$43.8962.7 coins0.82x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$53.52	90.91%	22
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$53.46	90.91%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$53.62	90.91%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.4%covert 8.9%classified 59.0%rare 0.3%mil spec 6.5%restricted 25.0%best hit $2,058 (38.38x)