Heroic
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.29
10.42 coins
Advertised RTP
90.88%
EV $6.63 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.07%
4,189 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,189 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.2910.42 coins$1.692.41 coins0.23x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.2910.42 coins$3.494.98 coins0.48x
StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.2910.42 coins$1.692.41 coins0.23x
StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specS0nn3$7.2910.42 coins$1.692.41 coins0.23x
StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.2910.42 coins$1.692.41 coins0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $7.29 | 90.88% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $7.27 | 90.87% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.27 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $7.41 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $7.43 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.41 | 90.94% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 1.5%classified 0.5%covert 2.8%base 1.5%exotic 3.3%restricted 10.0%mil spec 38.5%extraordinary 12.0%remarkable 30.0%best hit —