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Hidden Vault

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$30.60
43.72 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $27.82 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.06%
5,141 openings, odds method
Variance
45.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 133
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
558 openings · below min
7 days
76.15%±20.264,195 openings
30 days
81.06%±18.295,141 openings
since tracking started
81.06%±18.295,141 openings
0.0%56.5%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h55856.46%±55.7—odds
7d4,19576.15%±20.3−1.4σodds
30d5,14181.06%±18.3−1.1σodds
All5,14181.06%±18.3−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,199 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 2,000$4,774 6,820 coins8.6%12.60.38×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 2,000$3,252 4,645 coins5.8%52.61.92×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl1 in 1,000$2,342 3,345 coins8.4%15.20.19×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 1,000$2,100 3,000 coins7.5%75.21.35×
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 500$1,775 2,535 coins12.8%710.40.67×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 400$1,121 1,602 coins10.1%1713.01.31×
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 400$912 1,303 coins8.2%1113.00.85×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 333$806 1,152 coins8.7%815.60.51×
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 333$573 818 coins6.2%1915.61.22×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$468 668 coins6.7%2420.81.15×
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 200$385 550 coins6.9%2326.00.88×
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Well-Worn)gloves · rare1 in 200$199 284 coins3.6%2726.01.04×
AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200$116 166 coins2.1%2926.01.12×
Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 67$80.50 115 coins4.3%8678.01.10×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer95.0%$0.02 0.03 coins0.1%4,9344939.11.00×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers (Factory New)gloves · legendary$31.2444.63 coins$4,7886,840 coins153.3x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$30.6043.72 coins$3,2524,645 coins106.2x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.2444.63 coins$3,2524,645 coins104.1x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearlreecemxrgan$31.2444.63 coins$3,2524,645 coins104.1x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearlmagignic$31.2444.63 coins$3,2524,645 coins104.1x
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.2444.63 coins$3,2524,645 coins104.1x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl$31.2444.63 coins$2,3423,345 coins74.95x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.2444.63 coins$2,1703,100 coins69.46x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.2444.63 coins$2,1703,100 coins69.46x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.2444.63 coins$2,1703,100 coins69.46x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$30.6043.72 coins$0.020.03 coins0.00x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlKickerrrrrrrr$30.6043.72 coins$8061,152 coins26.35x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$30.6090.91%15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$31.2490.90%15
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 2.4%rare 0.5%classified 0.5%industrial 1.5%consumer 95.0%best hit $4,788 (153.3x)