Holiday Lights
A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.18
31.68 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $20.16 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.90%
3,285 openings, odds method
Variance
28.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,285 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Fnatic (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableAvyrian$22.1831.68 coins$1,0071,439 coins45.42x
Latest dropsnewest first
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialPetrrr csgoroll.com$22.1831.68 coins$0.130.18 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $22.18 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.18 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.18 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $22.41 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.42 | 90.90% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.0%legendary 0.5%covert 2.0%mil spec 1.0%extraordinary 0.5%industrial 47.5%common 47.5%best hit $1,007 (45.42x)