Homerun
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.89
5.56 coins
Advertised RTP
90.98%
EV $3.54 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.83%
37.3K openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.4K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.89 | 90.98% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.91 | 90.98% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.91 | 90.93% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%red 0.5%mil spec 5.2%classified 8.0%industrial 2.0%restricted 3.0%consumer 80.0%best hit —