Hot and Cold

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$188.51

269 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $171.37 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.82%

1,383 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.19%±25.75117 openings

7 days

87.46%±7.551,326 openings

30 days

86.82%±7.391,383 openings

since tracking started

86.82%±7.391,383 openings

69.0%95.3%121.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	117	95.19%±25.8	+0.3σ	odds
7d	1,326	87.46%±7.55	−0.9σ	odds
30d	1,383	86.82%±7.39	−1.1σ	odds
All	1,383	86.82%±7.39	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,383 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 6,667	$9,240 13,200 coins	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 4,000	$7,455 10,650 coins	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$7,294 10,420 coins	0.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,500	$2,667 3,810 coins	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$1,177 1,682 coins	6.2%	12	12.4	0.96×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$1,090 1,557 coins	3.2%	11	6.9	1.59×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 40	$587 838 coins	8.6%	29	34.6	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 59	$415 593 coins	4.1%	30	23.5	1.28×
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$409 584 coins	20.4%	100	118.2	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$276 394 coins	16.1%	123	138.3	0.89×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 31	$274 392 coins	5.2%	47	44.9	1.05×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 14	$195 278 coins	7.9%	106	96.8	1.09×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 13	$168 240 coins	7.8%	115	110.6	1.04×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 18	$113 161 coins	3.6%	72	76.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	22.0%	$51.58 73.69 coins	6.6%	301	304.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.5%	$50.96 72.8 coins	3.7%	188	172.9	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	17.5%	$30.86 44.08 coins	3.2%	248	242.0	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$189269 coins$2,6673,810 coins14.15x2d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$189269 coins$1,1771,682 coins6.25x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$191272 coins$1,1161,594 coins5.85x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$191272 coins$1,1161,594 coins5.85x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertplayerman$191272 coins$1,1161,594 coins5.85x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$191272 coins$1,1161,594 coins5.85x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified$189269 coins$51.5873.69 coins0.27x3m

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$189269 coins$30.8644.08 coins0.16x3m

M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedLegend$189269 coins$30.8644.08 coins0.16x3m

★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$189269 coins$113161 coins0.60x5m

Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$189269 coins$409584 coins2.17x5m

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$189269 coins$195278 coins1.03x5m

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertLegend$189269 coins$195278 coins1.03x5m

M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified$189269 coins$51.5873.69 coins0.27x5m

★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$189269 coins$113161 coins0.60x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$189	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$189	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$191	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 28.5%extraordinary 0.9%restricted 36.0%classified 34.5%best hit $2,667 (14.15x)