Hush

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$121.02

173 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $110.02 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.37%

127 openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

71.69%±49.71119 openings

30 days

73.37%±48.11127 openings

since tracking started

73.37%±48.11127 openings

-0.5%137.5%275.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	129.21%±145.8	—	odds
7d	119	71.69%±49.7	−0.8σ	odds
30d	127	73.37%±48.1	−0.7σ	odds
All	127	73.37%±48.1	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) 4x Reason (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 333,333	$98K 140,000 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 250,000	$53.5K 76,380 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
EMS Katowice 2014 Legendsother · base	1 in 100,000	$25K 35,730 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 16,667	$22.8K 32,500 coins	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$9,870 14,100 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 11,111	$7,297 10,425 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 12,500	$6,269 8,955 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$4,946 7,065 coins	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$3,815 5,450 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 2,222	$1,890 2,700 coins	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 4,000	$1,544 2,206 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,250	$1,357 1,939 coins	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 556	$1,096 1,566 coins	1.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 71	$420 600 coins	5.4%	3	1.8	1.68×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 250	$394 563 coins	1.4%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$370 529 coins	12.7%	0	4.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12	$277 395 coins	21.4%	8	10.8	0.74×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$175 250 coins	8.0%	8	6.4	1.26×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$140 200 coins	8.9%	6	8.9	0.67×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	11.0%	$126 180 coins	12.6%	14	14.0	1.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	12.5%	$109 155 coins	12.3%	24	15.9	1.51×
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	25.0%	$19.25 27.5 coins	4.4%	29	31.8	0.91×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$18.35 26.22 coins	4.2%	35	31.8	1.10×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$121173 coins$126180 coins1.04x10h

★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$121173 coins$109155 coins0.90x10h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$121173 coins$277395 coins2.28x10h

★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$121173 coins$109155 coins0.90x10h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert560 HP$121173 coins$277395 coins2.28x10h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$121173 coins$420600 coins3.47x10h

★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$121173 coins$175250 coins1.45x10h

MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$121173 coins$18.3526.22 coins0.15x10h

★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert560 HP$121173 coins$126180 coins1.04x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$121	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$121	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$122	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%base 0.0%extraordinary 7.0%contraband 0.0%covert 39.2%restricted 3.8%classified 25.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —