Hypermania

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.82

8.31 coins

Advertised RTP

90.93%

EV $5.29 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.71%

16.3K openings, odds method

Variance

5.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.00%±12.011,525 openings

7 days

89.56%±4.0213.6K openings

30 days

90.71%±3.6716.3K openings

since tracking started

90.71%±3.6716.3K openings

76.5%89.0%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,525	89.00%±12.0	−0.3σ	odds
7d	13.6K	89.56%±4.02	−0.7σ	odds
30d	16.3K	90.71%±3.67	−0.1σ	odds
All	16.3K	90.71%±3.67	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$107 153 coins	10.1%	83	81.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$52.51 75.02 coins	34.7%	573	570.9	1.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$49.23 70.33 coins	11.2%	197	195.7	1.01×
Sticker \| Doppler Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic	1 in 125	$34.64 49.49 coins	5.2%	140	130.5	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$18.54 26.48 coins	17.5%	770	815.6	0.94×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$15.62 22.31 coins	5.9%	317	326.2	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$9.92 14.17 coins	5.6%	481	489.3	0.98×
P90 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$9.65 13.78 coins	7.3%	675	652.4	1.03×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$2.40 3.43 coins	2.3%	846	815.6	1.04×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	37.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	6,150	6116.6	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	6,079	6116.6	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$5.828.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerHoen$5.828.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$5.828.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$5.828.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerJarza$5.828.31 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4m

FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$5.828.31 coins$15.6222.31 coins2.68x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.82	90.93%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$5.73	90.92%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$5.71	90.96%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%mil spec 1.2%exotic 0.8%pink 5.0%classified 5.0%industrial 4.0%restricted 5.0%consumer 75.0%best hit —