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Hyperventilation

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$266.97
381 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $242.70 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
128.68%
1,449 openings, odds method
Variance
55.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 51
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
56 openings · below min
7 days
129.32%±38.261,440 openings
30 days
128.68%±38.141,449 openings
since tracking started
128.68%±38.141,449 openings
90.0%365.0%640.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h56443.79%±195.4—odds
7d1,440129.32%±38.3+2.0σodds
30d1,449128.68%±38.1+1.9σodds
All1,449128.68%±38.1+1.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,449 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 10,000$105K 150,000 coins4.3%10.1—
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 2,000$56K 80,000 coins11.5%20.7—
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 1,000$29.7K 42,500 coins12.3%21.41.38×
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 500$9,093 12,990 coins7.5%22.90.69×
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 167$4,025 5,750 coins10.0%98.71.04×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 100$2,667 3,810 coins11.0%1014.50.69×
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby1 in 222$2,076 2,965 coins3.8%56.50.77×
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 50$1,545 2,207 coins12.7%2429.00.83×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 33$1,325 1,893 coins16.4%3843.50.87×
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 25$636 909 coins10.5%6958.01.19×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer44.0%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%634637.60.99×
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer44.6%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%653646.11.01×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) 4x IBP Holo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary$270385 coins$105K150,000 coins389.5x
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary$267381 coins$56K80,000 coins209.8x
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary$270385 coins$56K80,000 coins207.7x
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendaryDer beste Uwe$270385 coins$29.7K42,500 coins110.4x
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) 4x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary$270385 coins$29.7K42,500 coins110.4x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary🟢LIVE kick/sn0wieTV GIVEAWAY$270385 coins$9,12113,030 coins33.84x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$270385 coins$9,12113,030 coins33.84x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKickerrrrrrrr$267381 coins$4,0255,750 coins15.08x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$267381 coins$4,0255,750 coins15.08x
★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$270385 coins$4,0255,750 coins14.93x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerJhon csgoroll.com$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyJhon csgoroll.com$267381 coins$1,3251,893 coins4.96x
★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$267381 coins$636909 coins2.38x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$267381 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$26790.91%12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$27090.91%12
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.6%extraordinary 0.8%covert 10.0%consumer 88.6%best hit $105K (389.5x)