Hypnosis
A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.49
7.84 coins
Advertised RTP
90.88%
EV $4.99 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.17%
6,163 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,180 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.49 | 90.88% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $5.52 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.51 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.51 | 90.88% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.45 | 90.95% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.44 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $5.43 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.45 | 90.92% | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $5.47 | 90.87% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.40 | 90.95% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 10.3%covert 0.1%classified 11.3%red 0.3%industrial 25.1%consumer 23.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $429 (78.89x)