Hypnotized
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.05
88.64 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $56.41 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.75%
91 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 91 openings and 20.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$64.6792.39 coins$1,1421,632 coins17.66x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2ViggerMcNieger$64.6792.39 coins$1,1421,632 coins17.66x
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$62.0588.64 coins$43.8162.59 coins0.71x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com$62.0588.64 coins$17.8625.51 coins0.29x
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$64.6792.39 coins$20.9929.98 coins0.32x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$64.6792.39 coins$18.8426.91 coins0.29x
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$64.6792.39 coins$44.1263.03 coins0.68x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $62.05 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $62.71 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $64.67 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 43.6%classified 12.0%industrial 14.0%restricted 30.4%best hit $1,142 (17.66x)