Hypothermia

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$183.43

262 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $166.75 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.61%

186 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

83.12%±16.23155 openings

30 days

88.61%±14.82186 openings

since tracking started

88.61%±14.82186 openings

7.5%65.8%124.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	65.79%±57.8	—	odds
7d	155	83.12%±16.2	−0.9σ	odds
30d	186	88.61%±14.8	−0.3σ	odds
All	186	88.61%±14.8	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 186 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 250	$1,583 2,262 coins	3.8%	1	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 333	$1,544 2,206 coins	2.8%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 200	$883 1,262 coins	2.6%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$878 1,254 coins	3.4%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 143	$816 1,165 coins	3.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 125	$748 1,068 coins	3.6%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 182	$659 942 coins	2.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 133	$557 795 coins	2.5%	1	1.4	0.72×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$342 488 coins	10.2%	10	9.3	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$316 452 coins	6.6%	7	6.5	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$291 416 coins	3.5%	2	3.7	0.54×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$259 370 coins	4.7%	9	5.6	1.61×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 100	$168 240 coins	1.0%	3	1.9	1.61×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 13	$162 231 coins	7.8%	16	14.9	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.0%	$134 192 coins	8.1%	16	18.6	0.86×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	12.0%	$121 173 coins	8.7%	27	22.3	1.21×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25	$115 164 coins	2.8%	5	7.4	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	19.4%	$111 159 coins	12.9%	32	36.0	0.89×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$85.40 122 coins	3.6%	9	13.0	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 15	$77.70 111 coins	3.0%	17	12.1	1.41×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	14.0%	$33.42 47.74 coins	2.8%	27	26.0	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1$185264 coins$1,6762,394 coins9.07x8d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$183262 coins$1,5442,206 coins8.42x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$185264 coins$1,5092,156 coins8.17x7d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covertLongKoala$185264 coins$8601,229 coins4.66x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$185264 coins$8311,187 coins4.50x4d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert$185264 coins$7801,114 coins4.22x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$185264 coins$582831 coins3.15x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified戏小阳$183262 coins$134192 coins0.73x5h

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$183262 coins$121173 coins0.66x7h

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryBaduci$183262 coins$115164 coins0.63x7h

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$183262 coins$111159 coins0.61x8h

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$183262 coins$134192 coins0.73x10h

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$183262 coins$33.4247.74 coins0.18x13h

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified$183262 coins$134192 coins0.73x14h

★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert$183262 coins$77.70111 coins0.42x15h

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$183262 coins$85.40122 coins0.47x17h

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$183262 coins$121173 coins0.66x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$183	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$184	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$185	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 62.0%rare 1.5%classified 15.0%restricted 3.5%extraordinary 18.0%best hit $1,676 (9.07x)