Ichor
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$185.14
264 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $168.30 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.73%
72 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 72 openings and 5.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$187268 coins$8741,248 coins4.66x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$187268 coins$8741,248 coins4.66x
★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Jake$187268 coins$565807 coins3.01x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$185264 coins$16.4223.46 coins0.09x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $185 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $185 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 11.5%mil spec 13.0%classified 50.0%high 25.0%best hit $4,025 (21.48x)