Illumination
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$22.11
31.58 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $20.10 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.86%
735 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 739 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $192 274 coins | 9.5% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× |
| Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 67 | $102 146 coins | 7.6% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.26× |
| M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 12.8% | 32 | 37.0 | 0.87× |
| AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $32.87 46.96 coins | 24.5% | 122 | 110.9 | 1.10× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 57.5% | $15.88 22.69 coins | 45.4% | 417 | 424.9 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 79 | 73.9 | 1.07× |
| MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | <$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 65 | 73.9 | 0.88× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $22.11 | 90.91% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.11 | 90.91% | 7 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $21.89 | 90.91% | 7 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $21.94 | 90.90% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 58.5%restricted 16.5%classified 5.0%consumer 20.0%best hit —