Illusion
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.53
37.9 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $24.12 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.17%
399 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 399 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedCousin of po$26.5337.9 coins$12.7818.26 coins0.48x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$26.5337.9 coins$113161 coins4.25x
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedM1koGooD$26.5337.9 coins$12.7818.26 coins0.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.53 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.68 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.98 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 12.3%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 4.0%consumer 46.6%classified 12.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —