Impact
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$99.78
143 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $90.70 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.24%
714 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 714 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryMDSGaming$99.44142 coins$536765 coins5.39x
★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryJole$99.43142 coins$536765 coins5.39x
Latest dropsnewest first
SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedJhon csgoroll.com$99.78143 coins$283404 coins2.83x
Sawed-Off | First Class (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specJhon csgoroll.com$99.78143 coins$27.4539.21 coins0.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $99.78 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $99.78 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $99.78 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $99.70 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $99.44 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $99.44 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $99.44 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.43 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 32.2%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 11.6%classified 31.0%mil spec 24.9%best hit $536 (5.39x)