Imperial
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.59
22.27 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $14.17 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.97%
2,659 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,659 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert$15.6022.28 coins$8031,147 coins51.48x
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Boombl4 (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary$15.5922.27 coins$38.7355.33 coins2.48x
Sticker | Boombl4 (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary$15.5922.27 coins$38.7355.33 coins2.48x
Sticker | Boombl4 (Gold) | Katowice 2019sticker · extraordinary$15.5922.27 coins$38.7355.33 coins2.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $15.59 | 90.92% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.60 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $15.71 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $15.82 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $15.81 | 90.93% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.81 | 90.92% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 6.2%exotic 0.1%classified 0.7%extraordinary 31.2%restricted 22.0%remarkable 10.3%industrial 13.5%Extraordinary 16.0%best hit $803 (51.48x)