Implosion

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$147.76

211 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $134.33 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.28%

606 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

104.47%±21.64455 openings

30 days

101.28%±18.76606 openings

since tracking started

101.28%±18.76606 openings

82.0%199.7%317.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	201.73%±115.1	—	odds
7d	455	104.47%±21.6	+1.2σ	odds
30d	606	101.28%±18.8	+1.1σ	odds
All	606	101.28%±18.8	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 606 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 2,000	$4,288 6,125 coins	1.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$4,281 6,115 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$2,667 3,810 coins	4.0%	2	1.2	1.65×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50	$1,679 2,398 coins	25.0%	17	12.1	1.40×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$1,544 2,206 coins	0.6%	1	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$937 1,339 coins	7.0%	5	6.1	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 31	$733 1,047 coins	17.4%	19	19.3	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50	$679 970 coins	10.1%	14	12.1	1.16×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$643 918 coins	14.4%	15	18.2	0.83×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$409 584 coins	1.5%	5	3.0	1.65×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$305 436 coins	18.2%	51	48.5	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	225	242.4	0.93×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	252	242.4	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$148211 coins$2,6673,810 coins18.05x1d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$150214 coins$1,7122,445 coins11.45x3d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$150214 coins$1,7122,445 coins11.45x4d

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$150214 coins$1,7122,445 coins11.45x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$148211 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$148211 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x21m

★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$148211 coins$7331,047 coins4.96x21m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$148211 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x18h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$148211 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x18h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerlocked in robben$148211 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x18h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$148211 coins$679970 coins4.60x18h

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$148211 coins$1,6792,398 coins11.36x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$148	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$150	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.5%covert 19.4%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,667 (18.05x)