Incognito

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.98

14.25 coins

Advertised RTP

90.94%

EV $9.07 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.49%

3,710 openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.65%±24.17319 openings

7 days

91.02%±7.573,252 openings

30 days

90.49%±7.083,710 openings

since tracking started

90.49%±7.083,710 openings

68.0%92.8%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	319	92.65%±24.2	+0.1σ	odds
7d	3,252	91.02%±7.57	−0.0σ	odds
30d	3,710	90.49%±7.08	−0.1σ	odds
All	3,710	90.49%±7.08	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,710 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$219 313 coins	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$155 221 coins	8.5%	22	18.6	1.19×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$124 177 coins	9.6%	22	26.0	0.85×
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$116 166 coins	0.6%	1	1.9	0.54×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$77.70 111 coins	21.4%	99	92.8	1.07×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$72.80 104 coins	8.8%	44	40.8	1.08×
★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert	1 in 2,000	$64.46 92.08 coins	0.4%	2	1.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$60.39 86.27 coins	9.3%	44	51.9	0.85×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$26.17 37.38 coins	17.3%	223	222.6	1.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$17.75 25.35 coins	11.7%	209	222.6	0.94×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$5.20 7.43 coins	5.2%	323	333.9	0.97×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$4.36 6.23 coins	3.8%	302	296.8	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.7%	$0.78 1.11 coins	1.3%	583	582.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Aztec (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.0%	$0.65 0.93 coins	0.9%	465	445.2	1.04×
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.25 0.36 coins	0.6%	706	742.0	0.95×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	17.0%	$0.16 0.23 coins	0.3%	665	630.7	1.05×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDrWein$9.9814.25 coins$0.650.93 coins0.07x2m

StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedAjax absult 100%$9.9814.25 coins$0.650.93 coins0.07x2m

P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9.9814.25 coins$0.250.36 coins0.03x16m

StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.9814.25 coins$0.650.93 coins0.07x16m

P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9.9814.25 coins$0.250.36 coins0.03x16m

StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.9814.25 coins$0.650.93 coins0.07x16m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$9.9814.25 coins$0.781.11 coins0.08x16m

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMang3kyou$9.9814.25 coins$0.781.11 coins0.08x16m

USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9.9814.25 coins$0.160.23 coins0.02x19m

P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$9.9814.25 coins$0.250.36 coins0.03x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$9.98	90.94%	16
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$9.98	90.93%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$9.98	90.88%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$10.02	90.91%	16
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$9.97	90.94%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$9.97	90.92%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 36.4%covert 3.1%mil spec 53.1%classified 7.4%best hit —