Incubator
A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives, awp), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.74
5.35 coins
Advertised RTP
90.95%
EV $3.41 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.82%
44.4K openings, odds method
Variance
41.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $3.74 | 90.95% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.74 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.75 | 90.89% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.76 | 90.89% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.74 | 90.91% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%contraband 0.0%classified 2.2%restricted 0.0%extraordinary 1.0%exotic 16.0%#d32ce6 2.0%high 45.0%Rare 33.4%best hit $1,778 (475.7x)