Infectious
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.99
12.84 coins
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $8.17 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.61%
2,563 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,567 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $8.99 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.07 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.79 | 90.95% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $8.83 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $8.84 | 90.88% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $8.75 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.78 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $8.83 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.95 | 90.92% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 5.8%covert 0.1%extraordinary 1.8%restricted 5.0%industrial 22.4%mil spec 33.0%Mythical 4.0%consumer 28.0%best hit —