Inferno
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.33
1.9 coins
Advertised RTP
90.83%
EV $1.21 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.03%
47.8K openings, odds method
Variance
33.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 95
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $1.33 | 90.83% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $1.34 | 90.87% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.34 | 90.73% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.32 | 90.88% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.32 | 90.72% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.6%mil spec 91.1%restricted 8.3%best hit $130 (98.41x)