Inflammable

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$184.31

263 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $167.55 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.00%

154 openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

36 openings · below min

7 days

78.61%±45.12118 openings

30 days

75.00%±39.44154 openings

since tracking started

75.00%±39.44154 openings

33.0%115.8%198.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	36	115.86%±81.9	—	odds
7d	118	78.61%±45.1	−0.5σ	odds
30d	154	75.00%±39.4	−0.8σ	odds
All	154	75.00%±39.4	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$6,888 9,840 coins	4.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 250	$4,365 6,235 coins	10.4%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 200	$3,164 4,520 coins	9.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 500	$2,667 3,810 coins	3.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 333	$1,545 2,207 coins	2.8%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,114 1,591 coins	6.6%	2	1.5	1.30×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 200	$1,008 1,440 coins	3.0%	2	0.8	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$776 1,108 coins	2.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$760 1,086 coins	2.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$748 1,068 coins	4.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$676 966 coins	2.0%	1	0.8	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$652 932 coins	3.9%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$627 896 coins	1.9%	1	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$564 806 coins	3.4%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$267 382 coins	1.6%	2	1.5	1.30×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$260 372 coins	1.6%	2	1.5	1.30×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	30.0%	$82.60 118 coins	14.8%	43	46.2	0.93×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	30.0%	$77.00 110 coins	13.8%	47	46.2	1.02×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	30.0%	$47.48 67.83 coins	8.5%	50	46.2	1.08×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high$184263 coins$3,1644,520 coins17.17x15h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$184263 coins$1,1141,591 coins6.04x15h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$184263 coins$1,1141,591 coins6.04x1d

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$184263 coins$1,0081,440 coins5.47x15h

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$187268 coins$1,0081,440 coins5.38x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$187268 coins$8551,222 coins4.56x6d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$184264 coins$7601,086 coins4.12x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$184264 coins$676966 coins3.67x2d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary🟢Kick: JULSY$187268 coins$611873 coins3.26x5d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert$187268 coins$578826 coins3.09x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$184263 coins$82.60118 coins0.45x15h

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$184263 coins$77.00110 coins0.42x15h

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$184263 coins$82.60118 coins0.45x15h

★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertI AM THE PIRATE KING$184263 coins$47.4867.83 coins0.26x15h

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$184263 coins$77.00110 coins0.42x15h

★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$184263 coins$1,0081,440 coins5.47x15h

★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$184263 coins$47.4867.83 coins0.26x15h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$184263 coins$1,1141,591 coins6.04x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$184	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$184	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$187	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 36.6%contraband 0.4%high 0.5%classified 1.0%legendary 1.0%extraordinary 60.5%best hit $3,164 (17.17x)