Injection

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$51.43

73.47 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $46.75 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.08%

748 openings, odds method

Variance

9.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 30

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

86.88%±24.93620 openings

30 days

87.08%±22.73748 openings

since tracking started

87.08%±22.73748 openings

43.5%124.0%204.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	123.94%±79.8	—	odds
7d	620	86.88%±24.9	−0.3σ	odds
30d	748	87.08%±22.7	−0.3σ	odds
All	748	87.08%±22.7	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 748 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 200	$1,740 2,485 coins	18.6%	6	3.7	1.60×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$765 1,093 coins	16.4%	7	7.5	0.94×
★ Karambit \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$512 731 coins	10.9%	2	7.5	0.27×
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$371 530 coins	6.3%	4	6.0	0.67×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 40	$284 406 coins	15.2%	11	18.7	0.59×
Sticker \| fitch (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 25	$122 175 coins	10.5%	30	29.9	1.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$115 164 coins	2.9%	11	9.0	1.23×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$79.10 113 coins	5.1%	27	22.4	1.20×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$76.30 109 coins	6.5%	27	29.9	0.90×
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$50.43 72.05 coins	3.8%	25	26.2	0.95×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 29	$49.60 70.86 coins	3.7%	28	26.2	1.07×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	196	187.0	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	196	187.0	1.05×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	178	187.0	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$51.4673.51 coins$1,8202,600 coins35.37x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$51.4673.51 coins$1,8202,600 coins35.37x4d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$51.4673.51 coins$1,8202,600 coins35.37x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$51.4673.51 coins$1,8202,600 coins35.37x7d

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlMosbricka$51.4373.47 coins$1,7402,485 coins33.82x17h

★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlbennett$51.4373.47 coins$1,7402,485 coins33.82x1d

★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$51.4373.47 coins$7651,093 coins14.88x22h

★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covertBeastafiedBeast$51.4373.47 coins$7651,093 coins14.88x1d

★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$51.4373.47 coins$7651,093 coins14.88x2d

★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New)knife · covert$51.4673.51 coins$7651,093 coins14.87x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerChrasťoušekS$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$51.4373.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$51.4373.47 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$51.4373.47 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$51.43	90.90%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$51.67	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$51.46	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.0%extraordinary 6.0%mil spec 4.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $1,820 (35.37x)