Insomnia
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.82
11.17 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $7.11 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.42%
4,713 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,719 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.8211.17 coins$6.849.77 coins0.87x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.8211.17 coins$6.849.77 coins0.87x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$7.8211.17 coins$1.832.61 coins0.23x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specBRÄTT <3$7.8211.17 coins$1.832.61 coins0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.82 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.67 | 90.89% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $7.71 | 90.94% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.78 | 90.93% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.7%covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%exotic 0.3%mil spec 90.5%restricted 3.6%rare 2.8%remarkable 2.0%best hit $471 (61.13x)