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A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$529.47

756 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $481.34 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

57.25%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

7.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

9 openings · below min

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

-0.5%96.3%193.0%

Small sample. 48 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9	11.05%±181.1	—	odds
7d	36	34.47%±90.7	—	odds
30d	48	57.25%±78.6	—	odds
All	48	57.25%±78.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$10.3K 14,660 coins	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$9,342 13,345 coins	9.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 100	$8,057 11,510 coins	16.7%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 200	$7,000 10,000 coins	7.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$6,269 8,955 coins	13.0%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 333	$6,003 8,575 coins	3.7%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 200	$4,288 6,125 coins	4.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 50	$2,895 4,135 coins	12.0%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 67	$2,842 4,060 coins	8.9%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$1,299 1,856 coins	6.2%	1	1.1	0.91×
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$1,295 1,850 coins	2.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$1,081 1,544 coins	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 40	$523 747 coins	2.7%	2	1.2	1.67×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 29	$225 321 coins	1.6%	1	1.7	0.60×
★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert	1 in 33	$198 283 coins	1.2%	2	1.4	1.39×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New)weapon · classified	20.0%	$53.82 76.89 coins	2.2%	9	9.6	0.94×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.0%	$47.31 67.59 coins	2.0%	9	9.6	0.94×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	20.0%	$40.83 58.33 coins	1.7%	10	9.6	1.04×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$26.17 37.38 coins	1.1%	11	9.6	1.15×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$533762 coins$4,2886,125 coins8.04x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary$529756 coins$2,8954,135 coins5.47x2d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New)gloves · legendary$533762 coins$2,8324,045 coins5.31x7d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$533762 coins$1,3101,871 coins2.46x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$533762 coins$524749 coins0.98x5d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldHakki$533762 coins$524749 coins0.98x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedtiltedfish$529756 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.08x3h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$529756 coins$47.3167.59 coins0.09x3h

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$529756 coins$26.1737.38 coins0.05x3h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$529756 coins$47.3167.59 coins0.09x3h

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$529756 coins$26.1737.38 coins0.05x3h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$529756 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.08x20h

★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$529756 coins$225321 coins0.42x20h

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$529756 coins$26.1737.38 coins0.05x20h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedWielando$529756 coins$47.3167.59 coins0.09x20h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$529756 coins$40.8358.33 coins0.08x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$529	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$530	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$533	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.1%covert 10.9%contraband 0.5%extraordinary 4.5%legendary 4.0%classified 80.0%best hit $4,288 (8.04x)