Janissary

A case on CSGORoll (knives, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.31

19.02 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $12.10 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.97%

3,106 openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.53%±27.42322 openings

7 days

93.36%±9.532,681 openings

30 days

90.97%±8.853,106 openings

since tracking started

90.97%±8.853,106 openings

57.5%85.5%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	322	85.53%±27.4	−0.4σ	odds
7d	2,681	93.36%±9.53	+0.5σ	odds
30d	3,106	90.97%±8.85	+0.0σ	odds
All	3,106	90.97%±8.85	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,106 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 100,000	$4,277 6,110 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$1,400 2,000 coins	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 510	$279 398 coins	4.5%	7	6.1	1.15×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$209 298 coins	10.3%	23	18.6	1.23×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$202 288 coins	15.0%	22	28.0	0.79×
AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 333	$117 167 coins	2.9%	7	9.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$111 159 coins	9.2%	25	31.1	0.80×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$21.88 31.26 coins	9.0%	164	155.3	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	10.0%	$14.76 21.09 coins	12.2%	307	310.6	0.99×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$14.66 20.94 coins	8.5%	199	217.4	0.92×
Dual Berettas \| Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	16.0%	$6.03 8.62 coins	8.0%	498	497.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	19.0%	$5.77 8.24 coins	9.1%	591	590.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$4.89 6.99 coins	8.1%	606	621.2	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$1.53 2.18 coins	2.5%	656	621.2	1.06×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$13.2618.94 coins$1,4002,000 coins105.6x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$13.3119.02 coins$5.778.24 coins0.43x23m

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$13.3119.02 coins$4.896.99 coins0.37x23m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$13.3119.02 coins$5.778.24 coins0.43x23m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeHKBa_LF1_LP3_Auftrag 16$13.3119.02 coins$5.778.24 coins0.43x23m

Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$13.3119.02 coins$6.038.62 coins0.45x40m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$13.3119.02 coins$5.778.24 coins0.43x40m

Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$13.3119.02 coins$6.038.62 coins0.45x40m

Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil specLAMINE$13.3119.02 coins$6.038.62 coins0.45x40m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$13.31	90.90%	14
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$13.26	90.92%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$13.33	90.89%	14
6 Nov, 10:50 UTC	$13.38	90.89%	14
3 Nov, 07:26 UTC	$13.40	90.90%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$13.41	90.93%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%covert 2.5%extraordinary 0.2%rare 0.3%restricted 42.0%mil spec 36.0%Mil Spec Grade 19.0%best hit $1,400 (105.6x)