Judgement Day

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$623.69

891 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $566.99 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.81%

436 openings, odds method

Variance

48.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.70%±103.16174 openings

7 days

86.81%±64.98436 openings

30 days

86.81%±64.98436 openings

since tracking started

86.81%±64.98436 openings

-0.5%96.5%193.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	174	89.70%±103.2	−0.0σ	odds
7d	436	86.81%±65.0	−0.1σ	odds
30d	436	86.81%±65.0	−0.1σ	odds
All	436	86.81%±65.0	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 436 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) Pascha sticker (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$385K 550,000 coins	6.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) Titan (Holo) + 3x IBP (Holo) (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$56K 80,000 coins	9.9%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 250	$9,240 13,200 coins	6.5%	2	1.7	1.15×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 667	$5,978 8,540 coins	1.6%	0	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 133	$3,923 5,605 coins	5.2%	6	3.3	1.83×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 91	$3,815 5,450 coins	7.4%	10	4.8	2.09×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$3,213 4,590 coins	12.5%	9	9.6	0.94×
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$2,426 3,465 coins	3.9%	5	3.9	1.27×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 74	$2,079 2,970 coins	5.0%	5	5.9	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 56	$1,059 1,513 coins	3.4%	12	7.8	1.53×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$737 1,053 coins	6.5%	16	21.8	0.73×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 29	$652 932 coins	4.0%	15	15.3	0.98×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$531 758 coins	5.6%	32	26.2	1.22×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 40	$472 674 coins	2.1%	10	10.9	0.92×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	17.2%	$204 292 coins	6.2%	75	75.2	1.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$165 235 coins	2.0%	28	30.5	0.92×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	50.0%	$131 187 coins	11.5%	211	218.0	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband1ikedior$624891 coins$9,24013,200 coins14.82x2d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband$624891 coins$9,24013,200 coins14.82x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$629898 coins$3,9695,670 coins6.31x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$624891 coins$3,9235,605 coins6.29x13h

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$624891 coins$3,9235,605 coins6.29x14h

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert$629898 coins$3,9235,605 coins6.24x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$624891 coins$165235 coins0.26x45m

★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$624891 coins$131187 coins0.21x45m

★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkarma$624891 coins$131187 coins0.21x45m

★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$624891 coins$131187 coins0.21x49m

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$624891 coins$3,8155,450 coins6.12x49m

★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkarma$624891 coins$131187 coins0.21x49m

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$624891 coins$204292 coins0.33x11h

★ Huntsman Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$624891 coins$131187 coins0.21x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$624	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$629	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%contraband 0.4%covert 79.1%classified 2.2%extraordinary 18.1%best hit $9,240 (14.82x)