Juicatron 5000

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$36.48

52.11 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $33.16 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.29%

15.1K openings, odds method

Variance

34.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 99

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.83%±33.271,191 openings

7 days

81.73%±10.3912.2K openings

30 days

83.29%±9.3515.1K openings

since tracking started

83.29%±9.3515.1K openings

44.0%77.8%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,191	77.83%±33.3	−0.8σ	odds
7d	12.2K	81.73%±10.4	−1.7σ	odds
30d	15.1K	83.29%±9.35	−1.6σ	odds
All	15.1K	83.29%±9.35	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$3,892 5,560 coins	1.2%	1	1.5	0.66×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$2,755 3,935 coins	8.3%	11	15.1	0.73×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$1,844 2,635 coins	27.8%	67	75.6	0.89×
★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 250	$1,567 2,239 coins	18.9%	50	60.5	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 200	$1,100 1,572 coins	16.6%	76	75.6	1.01×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$883 1,262 coins	13.3%	75	75.6	0.99×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$255 364 coins	3.8%	64	75.6	0.85×
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$248 355 coins	3.7%	94	75.6	1.24×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$151 215 coins	2.3%	74	75.6	0.98×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 200	$110 157 coins	1.7%	80	75.6	1.06×
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 101	$77.00 110 coins	2.3%	177	149.6	1.18×
G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.06 0.08 coins	0.0%	3,856	3778.3	1.02×
Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	2,995	3022.6	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	3,828	3778.3	1.01×
G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	3,665	3778.3	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$36.4852.11 coins$3,8925,560 coins106.7x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$36.4852.11 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.51x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlASS KETCHUP$36.4852.11 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.51x1d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$36.4852.11 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.51x2d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$36.4652.08 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.56x2d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$36.6652.37 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.14x3d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$36.6652.37 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.14x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$36.6652.37 coins$2,7553,935 coins75.14x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBENIM$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x1m

Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x11m

★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold$36.4852.11 coins$77.00110 coins2.11x11m

Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x12m

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x14m

G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSolatyre$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x18m

G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x24m

Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x36m

PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x36m

G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$36.4852.11 coins$0.060.08 coins0.00x39m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$36.48	90.90%	15
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$36.48	90.91%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$36.44	90.90%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$36.66	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.1%classified 1.0%epic 0.4%extraordinary 0.5%gold 1.0%consumer 95.0%best hit $3,892 (106.7x)