Jukebox

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.71

3.87 coins

Advertised RTP

90.99%

EV $2.46 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.63%

139K openings, odds method

Variance

46.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 99

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.49%±9.7218.9K openings

7 days

90.38%±3.85117K openings

30 days

89.63%±3.53139K openings

since tracking started

89.63%±3.53139K openings

77.0%87.5%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18.9K	87.49%±9.72	−0.7σ	odds
7d	117K	90.38%±3.85	−0.3σ	odds
30d	139K	89.63%±3.53	−0.8σ	odds
All	139K	89.63%±3.53	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 22,222	$1,292 1,845 coins	2.4%	7	6.3	1.12×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 20,000	$966 1,380 coins	2.0%	2	7.0	0.29×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$269 384 coins	1.1%	15	13.9	1.08×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$207 296 coins	1.7%	30	27.8	1.08×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$200 286 coins	17.9%	286	306.2	0.93×
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$112 160 coins	11.4%	349	348.0	1.00×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$90.30 129 coins	18.3%	718	695.9	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$66.79 95.42 coins	16.3%	825	835.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 133	$47.31 67.59 coins	14.4%	1,013	1043.9	0.97×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$19.36 27.66 coins	6.3%	1,159	1113.5	1.04×
P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 125	$11.05 15.78 coins	3.6%	1,157	1113.5	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 96	$10.66 15.23 coins	4.5%	1,424	1448.2	0.98×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.1%	34,702	34795.5	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	27,965	27836.4	1.00×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	35,006	34795.5	1.01×
Nova \| Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	25.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.1%	34,524	34795.5	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.713.87 coins$1,2921,845 coins476.7x1d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertFujicon$2.663.8 coins$1,2921,845 coins485.5x3d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.663.8 coins$1,2921,845 coins485.5x4d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$2.663.8 coins$1,2921,845 coins485.5x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertdbedits07$2.663.8 coins$1,2921,845 coins485.5x8d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3$2.663.8 coins$9661,380 coins363.2x5d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Bumy$2.663.8 coins$281401 coins105.5x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$2.713.87 coins$0.010.02 coins0.01x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerGolfen 2.0$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.713.87 coins$10.6615.23 coins3.94x2m

Nova | Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

Nova | Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer𝓡𝓪𝓾𝓵$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer𝓡𝓪𝓾𝓵$2.713.87 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$2.71	90.99%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$2.75	90.81%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$2.66	90.96%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%classified 2.9%industrial 0.8%mil spec 1.0%consumer 95.0%best hit $1,292 (476.7x)