Junkyard

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$17.27

24.67 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $15.70 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.98%

824 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77 openings · below min

7 days

91.57%±9.99748 openings

30 days

92.98%±9.52824 openings

since tracking started

92.98%±9.52824 openings

64.0%95.2%126.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	77	95.28%±30.6	—	odds
7d	748	91.57%±9.99	+0.1σ	odds
30d	824	92.98%±9.52	+0.4σ	odds
All	824	92.98%±9.52	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 828 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$186 266 coins	4.7%	3	3.3	0.91×
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$95.90 137 coins	0.6%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$81.90 117 coins	5.2%	9	8.3	1.09×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$76.30 109 coins	38.9%	71	66.2	1.07×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$42.29 60.41 coins	5.4%	20	16.6	1.21×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$38.76 55.37 coins	4.9%	21	16.6	1.27×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$17.16 24.51 coins	5.5%	42	41.4	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$14.33 20.47 coins	4.6%	31	41.4	0.75×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$11.97 17.1 coins	3.8%	40	41.4	0.97×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	11.5%	$7.86 11.23 coins	5.8%	82	95.2	0.86×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted	40.0%	$6.29 8.99 coins	16.0%	317	331.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	20.0%	$3.59 5.13 coins	4.6%	192	165.6	1.16×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.2724.67 coins$3.595.13 coins0.21x16m

Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricteddinmor$17.2724.67 coins$6.298.99 coins0.36x16m

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.2724.67 coins$3.595.13 coins0.21x16m

Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.2624.65 coins$6.298.99 coins0.36x7h

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$17.2624.65 coins$3.595.13 coins0.21x7h

R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$17.2624.65 coins$76.30109 coins4.42x7h

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classifiedArcs$17.2624.65 coins$14.3320.47 coins0.83x7h

Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.2624.65 coins$6.298.99 coins0.36x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$17.27	90.90%	12
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$17.26	90.92%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.86	90.91%	12
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$16.83	90.89%	12
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$16.82	90.92%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.82	90.92%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.5%classified 24.5%industrial 5.0%restricted 60.0%best hit —