Jurassic Case
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.71
39.58 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $25.19 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.38%
473 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 473 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 67 | $366 523 coins | 21.8% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $178 254 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $160 228 coins | 1.9% | 5 | 1.4 | 3.52× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 500 | $116 166 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $61.14 87.34 coins | 7.3% | 21 | 14.2 | 1.48× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $41.94 59.92 coins | 8.3% | 16 | 23.7 | 0.68× |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 19.5% | $32.23 46.04 coins | 24.9% | 87 | 92.2 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $21.74 31.06 coins | 12.9% | 72 | 71.0 | 1.01× |
| XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $15.91 22.73 coins | 15.8% | 118 | 118.3 | 1.00× |
| P250 | Bone Mask (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 30.0% | $2.14 3.06 coins | 2.6% | 142 | 141.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $27.71 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.59 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.77 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 46.0%covert 3.5%extraordinary 0.5%classified 20.0%consumer 30.0%best hit —