Justice

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.33

36.18 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $23.02 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.54%

862 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99 openings · below min

7 days

92.33%±16.22664 openings

30 days

94.54%±14.22862 openings

since tracking started

94.54%±14.22862 openings

75.5%123.8%172.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	99	129.20%±42.1	—	odds
7d	664	92.33%±16.2	+0.2σ	odds
30d	862	94.54%±14.2	+0.5σ	odds
All	862	94.54%±14.2	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 862 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$316 452 coins	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 2,000	$270 386 coins	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$260 372 coins	0.6%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$211 301 coins	54.9%	54	51.7	1.04×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 91	$148 211 coins	7.1%	11	9.5	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 143	$142 203 coins	4.3%	8	6.0	1.33×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$130 186 coins	2.8%	1	4.3	0.23×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 71	$86.10 123 coins	5.2%	17	12.1	1.41×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$41.03 58.61 coins	10.7%	51	51.7	0.99×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$38.21 54.58 coins	4.1%	24	21.6	1.11×
Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable	1 in 13	$6.57 9.39 coins	2.3%	71	69.0	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$6.19 8.84 coins	2.4%	83	77.6	1.07×
Sticker \| Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic	12.0%	$4.56 6.52 coins	2.4%	105	103.4	1.02×
Sticker \| Coral Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable	15.7%	$2.07 2.96 coins	1.4%	131	135.2	0.97×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	17.0%	$0.85 1.21 coins	0.6%	131	146.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$0.45 0.64 coins	0.4%	175	172.4	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo)sticker · remarkable$25.3336.18 coins$6.579.39 coins0.26x11m

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$25.3336.18 coins$0.851.21 coins0.03x11m

Sticker | Coral Skill Surf (Holo)sticker · remarkable$25.3336.18 coins$2.072.96 coins0.08x11m

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$25.3336.18 coins$0.851.21 coins0.03x11m

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$25.3336.18 coins$211301 coins8.32x11m

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Kisu :)$25.3336.18 coins$86.10123 coins3.40x11m

Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic$25.3336.18 coins$4.566.52 coins0.18x4h

StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$25.3336.18 coins$0.450.64 coins0.02x4h

P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$25.3336.18 coins$0.851.21 coins0.03x4h

StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$25.3336.18 coins$0.450.64 coins0.02x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$25.33	90.90%	16
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$25.33	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$25.33	90.92%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$25.52	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$25.66	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.3%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 3.0%remarkable 23.7%classified 9.0%exotic 12.0%restricted 17.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit —