Kaleidoscope

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.94

24.2 coins

Advertised RTP

90.89%

EV $15.40 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.65%

4,459 openings, odds method

Variance

21.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.98%±38.09572 openings

7 days

90.52%±14.883,822 openings

30 days

90.65%±13.804,459 openings

since tracking started

90.65%±13.804,459 openings

48.0%86.8%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	572	86.98%±38.1	−0.2σ	odds
7d	3,822	90.52%±14.9	−0.0σ	odds
30d	4,459	90.65%±13.8	−0.0σ	odds
All	4,459	90.65%±13.8	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,459 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 20,000	$6,584 9,405 coins	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 12,500	$4,669 6,670 coins	2.4%	1	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 4,167	$1,988 2,840 coins	3.1%	1	1.1	0.93×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,818	$533 762 coins	1.9%	1	2.5	0.41×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,471	$460 657 coins	2.0%	5	3.0	1.65×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 200	$328 468 coins	10.6%	19	22.3	0.85×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$167 238 coins	5.4%	22	22.3	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 125	$141 202 coins	7.3%	30	35.7	0.84×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 111	$129 184 coins	7.5%	37	40.1	0.92×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$78.40 112 coins	5.8%	42	50.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 39	$51.69 73.84 coins	8.6%	122	113.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 38	$49.76 71.09 coins	8.6%	124	118.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 36	$36.93 52.75 coins	6.7%	142	124.9	1.14×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$23.72 33.88 coins	5.4%	167	156.1	1.07×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$19.12 27.31 coins	5.6%	179	200.7	0.89×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$9.03 12.9 coins	2.8%	231	211.8	1.09×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$6.66 9.52 coins	2.2%	211	227.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$5.97 8.53 coins	2.1%	241	243.0	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$5.01 7.15 coins	2.0%	282	267.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$3.39 4.84 coins	1.5%	317	312.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	13.7%	$3.08 4.4 coins	2.7%	632	610.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	19.0%	$1.75 2.5 coins	2.2%	830	847.2	0.98×
Sticker \| paiN Gaming (Holo) \| Paris 2023sticker · exotic	19.0%	$1.10 1.57 coins	1.4%	823	847.2	0.97×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireI'm the best bird$16.9424.2 coins$4,6696,670 coins275.6x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2P21=)$16.9024.15 coins$2,0402,915 coins120.7x4d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$16.9024.15 coins$556794 coins32.88x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.9424.2 coins$49.7671.09 coins2.94x25s

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$16.9424.2 coins$51.6973.84 coins3.05x25s

Sticker | paiN Gaming (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · exotic$16.9424.2 coins$1.101.57 coins0.06x2m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.9424.2 coins$1.752.5 coins0.10x2m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.9424.2 coins$3.084.4 coins0.18x2m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$16.9424.2 coins$36.9352.75 coins2.18x2m

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$16.9424.2 coins$19.1227.31 coins1.13x2m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedJarza$16.9424.2 coins$23.7233.88 coins1.40x2m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.9424.2 coins$3.394.84 coins0.20x5m

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$16.9424.2 coins$1.752.5 coins0.10x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$16.94	90.89%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.81	90.90%	23
5 Nov, 22:45 UTC	$16.90	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$16.91	90.93%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.3%mil spec 0.5%rare 0.8%classified 23.5%restricted 50.8%exotic 19.0%best hit $4,669 (275.6x)