Karma
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$27.66
39.52 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $25.15 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.82%
1,089 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,089 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Hydra Gloves | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Emerald)gloves · extraordinary · Emerald$27.6639.52 coins$30.8744.1 coins1.12x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $27.66 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $27.64 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.47 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $27.34 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $27.33 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.38 | 90.92% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.4%extraordinary 9.1%restricted 24.0%classified 19.5%industrial 12.0%#8847ff 18.0%consumer 15.0%best hit $1,069 (39.09x)