Kawaii
A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.61
23.73 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $15.10 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.29%
1,333 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,333 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonsirwins.a.not$16.6123.73 coins$15.2621.8 coins0.92x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$16.6123.73 coins$52.5175.02 coins3.16x
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6MoanTheAmazing$16.6123.73 coins$9.0412.91 coins0.54x
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLil Purp csgoroll.com$16.6123.73 coins$40.9858.55 coins2.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.61 | 90.90% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.81 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.81 | 90.92% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.5%restricted 5.5%classified 4.0%rare 2.0%uncommon 4.0%#d32ce6 4.0%remarkable 60.0%violet 15.0%best hit —