Killshot
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$72.09
103 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $65.53 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.00%
1,692 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
100.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,692 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $1,100 1,571 coins | 0.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Sticker | Natus Vincere | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 667 | $666 951 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |
| ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $623 890 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $153 219 coins | 1.2% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 345 | $138 197 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $110 157 coins | 1.7% | 14 | 16.9 | 0.83× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $109 155 coins | 5.0% | 40 | 50.8 | 0.79× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow DaggersStatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $88.20 126 coins | 2.7% | 39 | 33.8 | 1.15× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $86.10 123 coins | 3.9% | 58 | 50.8 | 1.14× |
| ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengersother · base | 90.0% | $60.06 85.8 coins | 82.5% | 1,524 | 1522.8 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary$72.09103 coins$1,1001,571 coins15.26x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $72.09 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $75.41 | 90.91% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $75.67 | 90.91% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%high 0.1%covert 9.8%base 90.0%best hit $1,100 (15.26x)