Kingslayer

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$31.34

44.77 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $28.49 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.17%

2,417 openings, odds method

Variance

7.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.13%±37.97196 openings

7 days

93.01%±13.441,564 openings

30 days

93.17%±10.812,417 openings

since tracking started

93.17%±10.812,417 openings

64.5%103.0%141.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	196	103.13%±38.0	+0.6σ	odds
7d	1,564	93.01%±13.4	+0.3σ	odds
30d	2,417	93.17%±10.8	+0.4σ	odds
All	2,417	93.17%±10.8	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,417 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$1,170 1,672 coins	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,142 1,631 coins	2.0%	3	1.2	2.48×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$963 1,376 coins	3.4%	2	2.4	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,000	$832 1,188 coins	1.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 500	$573 818 coins	4.0%	6	4.8	1.24×
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$516 737 coins	7.2%	5	9.7	0.52×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$377 539 coins	13.2%	28	24.2	1.16×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 167	$285 407 coins	6.0%	19	14.5	1.31×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 71	$205 293 coins	10.1%	35	33.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$193 275 coins	13.5%	46	48.3	0.95×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$128 183 coins	13.5%	69	72.5	0.95×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 31	$102 145 coins	11.4%	91	77.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$49.01 70.01 coins	13.8%	189	193.4	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	1,000	966.8	1.03×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	924	966.8	0.96×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$31.3444.77 coins$1,1421,631 coins36.43x1d

Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$31.8245.46 coins$1,1341,620 coins35.64x6d

Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$31.8245.46 coins$1,1341,620 coins35.64x7d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$31.8245.46 coins$9851,407 coins30.95x8d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · covert$31.3444.77 coins$9631,376 coins30.73x1d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.3444.77 coins$573818 coins18.27x1d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearlsup$31.3444.77 coins$573818 coins18.27x1d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.3444.77 coins$573818 coins18.27x2d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black PearlKickerrrrrrrr$31.8245.46 coins$573818 coins17.99x3d

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$31.8245.46 coins$573818 coins17.99x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$31.3444.77 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$31.3444.77 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$31.3444.77 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$31.3444.77 coins$193275 coins6.14x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$31.3444.77 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$31.3444.77 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$31.3444.77 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$31.3444.77 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x34m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$31.34	90.91%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$31.82	90.91%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.2%restricted 0.1%extraordinary 4.8%classified 9.0%consumer 80.0%best hit $1,142 (36.43x)