Knives Only

A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$173.64

248 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $157.85 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

139.79%

12 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

41.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

12 openings · below min

since tracking started

12 openings · below min

90.5%157.8%225.0%

Small sample. 12 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	8	171.72%±52.8	—	odds
30d	12	139.79%±43.1	—	odds
All	12	139.79%±43.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 100	$1,119 1,598 coins	7.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$323 461 coins	20.4%	2	1.2	1.67×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$235 336 coins	7.5%	0	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	25.0%	$218 311 coins	34.5%	3	3.0	1.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 20	$168 240 coins	5.3%	0	0.6	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	20.0%	$139 198 coins	17.6%	3	2.4	1.25×
★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert	34.0%	$35.56 50.8 coins	7.7%	3	4.1	0.74×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.