Knock Out

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$215.07

307 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $195.52 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.76%

1,903 openings, odds method

Variance

27.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 49

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

143 openings · below min

7 days

87.33%±27.661,360 openings

30 days

88.76%±23.371,903 openings

since tracking started

88.76%±23.371,903 openings

9.0%95.5%182.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	143	95.55%±85.8	—	odds
7d	1,360	87.33%±27.7	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,903	88.76%±23.4	−0.2σ	odds
All	1,903	88.76%±23.4	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,903 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$21.8K 31,155 coins	11.2%	2	1.9	1.05×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$12K 17,180 coins	24.6%	6	7.6	0.79×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 333	$4,655 6,650 coins	7.1%	6	5.7	1.05×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$4,025 5,750 coins	5.1%	4	4.8	0.84×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$2,230 3,185 coins	11.4%	23	19.0	1.21×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 154	$2,033 2,905 coins	6.8%	9	12.4	0.73×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$1,432 2,045 coins	3.7%	13	9.5	1.37×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$1,292 1,845 coins	6.6%	29	19.0	1.52×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$1,285 1,835 coins	6.6%	10	19.0	0.53×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 125	$1,067 1,524 coins	4.4%	14	15.2	0.92×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$917 1,310 coins	4.7%	20	19.0	1.05×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$723 1,033 coins	3.7%	21	19.0	1.10×
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$627 896 coins	3.2%	20	19.0	1.05×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100	$193 276 coins	1.0%	20	19.0	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	818	856.4	0.96×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	45.0%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	888	856.4	1.04×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$218311 coins$21.8K31,155 coins100.1x7d

Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$218311 coins$21.8K31,155 coins100.1x8d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215307 coins$12K17,180 coins55.92x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryFalken$218311 coins$12K17,180 coins55.21x5d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$218311 coins$12K17,180 coins55.21x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary$218311 coins$4,8306,900 coins22.18x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkarma$215307 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x53m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215307 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x53m

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$215307 coins$7231,033 coins3.36x53m

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$215307 coins$1,2851,835 coins5.97x53m

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215307 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerKickerrrrrrrr$215307 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x2h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215307 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x2h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215307 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$215307 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$215	90.91%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$218	90.91%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.1%extraordinary 7.6%legendary 2.3%consumer 90.0%best hit $21.8K (100.1x)