Kryptonite

A case on CSGORoll (knives, 40%, gloves), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$172.94

247 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $157.21 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.27%

395 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

25 openings · below min

7 days

86.21%±12.47328 openings

30 days

83.27%±11.37395 openings

since tracking started

83.27%±11.37395 openings

22.5%68.3%114.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	25	68.11%±45.1	—	odds
7d	328	86.21%±12.5	−0.7σ	odds
30d	395	83.27%±11.4	−1.3σ	odds
All	395	83.27%±11.4	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 396 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 41,667	$6,335 9,050 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 66,667	$6,269 8,955 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 52,632	$6,125 8,750 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,923	$1,766 2,523 coins	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,030	$1,472 2,103 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 813	$1,170 1,672 coins	0.9%	2	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 41	$638 912 coins	9.9%	6	9.7	0.62×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 29	$533 762 coins	11.9%	12	13.9	0.87×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$493 704 coins	18.8%	24	23.8	1.01×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20	$424 606 coins	13.5%	19	19.8	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$386 551 coins	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 16	$356 508 coins	14.2%	20	24.9	0.80×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 11	$204 291 coins	11.3%	34	34.5	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Emerald (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$172 246 coins	8.2%	25	29.7	0.84×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	21.0%	$26.52 37.88 coins	3.5%	76	83.2	0.91×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	19.1%	$26.08 37.25 coins	3.2%	87	75.8	1.15×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$23.07 32.95 coins	2.9%	91	79.2	1.15×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$170242 coins$1,2231,747 coins7.21x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$173247 coins$1,1701,672 coins6.77x2d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$170242 coins$641915 coins3.78x3d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$170242 coins$641915 coins3.78x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$170242 coins$641915 coins3.78x5d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$170242 coins$535764 coins3.15x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · EmeraldKevin Ramage$170242 coins$535764 coins3.15x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$173247 coins$424606 coins2.45x7h

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted$173247 coins$26.0837.25 coins0.15x8h

Glock-18 | Emerald (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$173247 coins$172246 coins1.00x9h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$173247 coins$26.5237.88 coins0.15x10h

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$173247 coins$23.0732.95 coins0.13x11h

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted$173247 coins$26.0837.25 coins0.15x11h

CZ75-Auto | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$173247 coins$23.0732.95 coins0.13x12h

P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedTrgi$173247 coins$493704 coins2.85x12h

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$173247 coins$204291 coins1.18x13h

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$173247 coins$424606 coins2.45x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$173	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$172	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$170	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 33.6%extraordinary 0.0%classified 6.0%restricted 19.3%mil spec 41.0%best hit $1,223 (7.21x)