Kwazy
A case on CSGORoll (partners, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$200.05
286 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $181.86 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.74%
1,312 openings, odds method
Variance
42.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 32
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,312 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$201287 coins$38K54,245 coins189.1x
Sticker | Reason Gaming (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$201287 coins$38K54,245 coins189.1x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$201287 coins$6,5149,305 coins32.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $200 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%covert 14.9%restricted 1.8%epic 2.0%legendary 1.2%consumer 80.0%best hit $38K (189.1x)