Lady Luck
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$335.05
479 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $304.59 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.53%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Xyp9x (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinaryI AM THE PIRATE KING$335479 coins$250357 coins0.75x
Souvenir Dual Berettas | Contractor (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · consumer$335479 coins$4.706.72 coins0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $335 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $335 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $337 | 90.91% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.3%classified 5.0%extraordinary 24.7%base 12.0%mil spec 10.0%restricted 10.0%industrial 10.0%consumer 10.0%best hit $1,114 (3.32x)