Lag
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$53.13
75.9 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $48.30 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.61%
284 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 284 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryStigerud$53.6276.6 coins$7501,071 coins13.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $53.13 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $53.26 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.62 | 90.91% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.4%covert 39.2%classified 20.4%restricted 20.0%remarkable 20.0%best hit $750 (13.98x)