Lars

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$23.82

34.03 coins

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

91.50%

13.2K openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.44%±33.121,921 openings

7 days

91.61%±11.7411.3K openings

30 days

91.50%±10.7213.2K openings

since tracking started

91.50%±10.7213.2K openings

60.5%94.3%128.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,921	94.44%±33.1	—	sample
7d	11.3K	91.61%±11.7	—	sample
30d	13.2K	91.50%±10.7	—	sample
All	13.2K	91.50%±10.7	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogCSGORoll publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.8234.03 coins$5,1707,385 coins217.0x3d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.8234.03 coins$5,1707,385 coins217.0x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.8234.03 coins$5,1707,385 coins217.0x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.8234.03 coins$5,1707,385 coins217.0x7d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.4633.52 coins$5,0237,175 coins214.1x4h

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.4633.52 coins$5,0237,175 coins214.1x22h

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$23.4633.52 coins$5,0237,175 coins214.1x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$23.8234.03 coins$1,7022,431 coins71.44x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumertiltedfish$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare$23.4633.52 coins$18.0625.8 coins0.77x15m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumertiltedfish$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$23.4633.52 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $5,170 (217.0x)