Last Resort
A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$18.68
26.69 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $16.98 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.28%
7,921 openings, odds method
Variance
12.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,921 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertIglo_Fisch$19.0927.27 coins$1,0531,504 coins55.15x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $18.68 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.68 | 90.90% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.09 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%restricted 0.1%exotic 0.3%mil spec 1.8%extraordinary 4.8%industrial 90.0%best hit $1,053 (55.15x)